Observing System Simulation Experiments Research Articles

Investigating Arctic Cyclone-Tropopause Polar Vortex Interactions with Idealized Observing System Simulation Experiments

Abstract Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a primary driver of surface weather in the Arctic, contributing to heat and moisture transport and forcing short-term sea ice variability. Still, our understanding of the processes that drive ACs, particularly their large scales and long lifetimes, is limited. ACs are commonly associated with one or more cyclonic tropopause polar vortices (TPVs), potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that may spur baroclinic development in the surface system, though the exact processes that link the two have yet to be fully explored. In this study, we investigate physical links between TPVs, especially their mesoscale structure and moisture profiles, and ACs with idealized observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Starting with a nature run, we simulate different types of dropsonde observations over a TPV during the nascent phase of a nearby AC. The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) ensemble adjustment Kalman filter are then used to run experiments to test the impact of these detailed TPV observations. In addition to a control, five main experiments are conducted, assimilating new observations of temperature and humidity. All experiments reduce forecast errors at the surface and throughout the troposphere. Additional humidity observations alter vertical PV distributions, which in turn impact the development of the AC. Experiments with additional temperature observations exhibit improvements in TPV structure and surrounding PV features and produce stronger surface cyclones with skillful TPV forecasts for up to 36 hours longer than the control.

Variable-Dependent and Selective Multivariate Localization for Ensemble–Variational Data Assimilation in the Tropics

Abstract Two aspects of ensemble localization for data assimilation are explored using the simplified nonhydrostatic ABC model in a tropical setting. The first aspect (i) is the ability to prescribe different localization length scales for different variables (variable-dependent localization). The second aspect (ii) is the ability to control (i.e., to knock out by localization) multivariate error covariances (selective multivariate localization). These aspects are explored in order to shed light on the cross-covariances that are important in the tropics and to help determine the most appropriate localization configuration for a tropical ensemble–variational (EnVar) data assimilation system. Two localization schemes are implemented within the EnVar framework to achieve (i) and (ii). One is called the isolated variable-dependent localization (IVDL) scheme and the other is called the symmetric variable-dependent localization (SVDL) scheme. Multicycle observation system simulation experiments are conducted using IVDL or SVDL mainly with a 100-member ensemble, although other ensemble sizes are studied (between 10 and 1000 members). The results reveal that selective multivariate localization can reduce the cycle-averaged root-mean-square error (RMSE) in the experiments when cross-covariances associated with hydrostatic balance are retained and when zonal wind/mass error cross-covariances are knocked out. When variable-dependent horizontal and vertical localization are incrementally introduced, the cycle-averaged RMSE is further reduced. Overall, the best performing experiment using both variable-dependent and selective multivariate localization leads to a 3%–4% reduction in cycle-averaged RMSE compared to the traditional EnVar experiment. These results may inform the possible improvements to existing tropical numerical weather prediction systems that use EnVar data assimilation.

Designing additional CO2 in-situ surface observation networks over South Korea using bayesian inversion coupled with Lagrangian modelling

Efforts to enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction in East Asia play a pivotal role on both global and regional scales in advancing climate mitigation strategies. This study aimed to better constrain anthropogenic CO2 emission estimates by expanding the network of near-surface in-situ stations for CO2 observations across South Korea. To achieve an optimal CO2 network design, we conducted an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) coupled with the Stochastic Lagrangian Transport model (STILT), utilizing meteorological data from the Korean Integrated Model (KIM). Our inversion setup incorporated two CO2 emission datasets with a 0.1o resolution: EDGAR v6 for prior emissions and GRACED for truth emissions. A uniform model-mismatch error of 3 ppm was introduced across sites. The effectiveness of the existing five in-situ stations, termed the base network, in South Korea was evaluated to gauge their ability to constrain CO2 surface flux estimates. However, the findings revealed a reduction in flux uncertainty of only 29.2%, which fell short of the desired uncertainty reduction goal. In this base network, the Lotte World Tower (LWT: 37.5126°E, 127.1025°E) in Seoul and the Anmyeondo (AMY: 36.538576° N, 126.330071° E) site in Taean county stood as major contributors, with estimated reductions of 17.48% and 6.35%, respectively. Consequently, we proposed and developed an extended network, identifying seven candidate sites based on consideration of logistical factors, existing infrastructures, and proximity to the emission source regions. An incremental optimization scheme ranked their contributions, resulting in an additional 25% reduction, bringing the total to 54.13%. However, it is noteworthy that diminishing returns (ranging from 13% to less than 0.1%) were observed with an increase in station count mainly due to the possibility that adding a station earlier in the sequence might render subsequent stations redundant. Despite this, the proposed CO2 network successfully reduced uncertainty in emissions, narrowing the gap with the objectives of the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W).

Regional Inversion Shows Promise in Capturing Extreme‐Event‐Driven CO2 Flux Anomalies but Is Limited by Atmospheric CO2 Observational Coverage

AbstractExtreme climate events are becoming more frequent, with poorly understood implications for carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. A better understanding will critically depend on accurate and precise quantification of ecosystems responses to these events. Taking the 2019 US Midwest floods as a case study, we investigate current capabilities for tracking regional flux anomalies with “top‐down” inversion analyses that assimilate atmospheric CO2 observations. For this analysis, we develop a regionally nested version of the NASA Carbon Monitoring System‐Flux system for North America (CMS‐Flux‐NA) that allows high resolution atmospheric transport (0.5° × 0.625°). Relative to a 2018 baseline, we find the 2019 US Midwest growing season net carbon uptake is reduced by 11–57 TgC (3%–16%, range across assimilated CO2 data sets). These estimates are found to be consistent with independent “bottom‐up” estimates of carbon uptake based on vegetation remote sensing (15–78 TgC). We then investigate current limitations in tracking regional carbon budgets using “top‐down” methods. In a set of observing system simulation experiments, we show that the ability of atmospheric CO2 inversions to capture regional carbon flux anomalies is still limited by observational coverage gaps for both in situ and satellite observations. Future space‐based missions that allow for daily observational coverage across North America would largely mitigate these observational gaps, allowing for improved top‐down estimates of ecosystem responses to extreme climate events.

Multivariate Upstream Kuroshio Transport (UKT) Prediction and Targeted Observation Sensitive Area Identification of UKT Seasonal Reduction

Variation and seasonal reduction in the Upstream Kuroshio Transport (UKT) have important impacts on surrounding climate and oceanic circulation systems. Therefore, reliable UKT prediction is crucial. In this paper, we propose an intelligent UKT prediction model, KuroshioNet, which is firstly pre-trained with simulation data generated by the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and then fine-tuned with reanalysis data of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). Operating at a five-day time resolution and a 0.5°spatial resolution, KuroshioNet has the capability to predict multivariate fields associated with upstream Kuroshio, including 3D variables like velocity, temperature, as well as salinity and 2D variables like sea surface height. Subsequently, the UKT is computed from the predicted fields. We evaluate and analyze the experimental results, which show that KuroshioNet has a lead time of 55 days for UKT prediction. In order to enhance the physical interpretability of KuroshioNet, we conduct an ablation experiment to evaluate the impact of each predictor on prediction skill. It demonstrates that selecting zonal velocity, meridional velocity, temperature, salinity, and SSH contributes to UKT prediction by KuroshioNet. Besides, by analyzing model performance and visualizing what the convolutional kernels learn, we find that KuroshioNet, which has learned from ROMS data, is capable of obtaining better initial performance and acquiring more active kernels to better learn the features in SODA data. Furthermore, we identify the targeted observation sensitive area of UKT seasonal reduction by KuroshioNet with the saliency map method, which is situated to the east of upstream kuroshio. The sensitive area is consistent with the result identified by numerical models and yields 38.1% improvement on prediction demonstrated by observing system simulation experiments.

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) in Support of Next-Generation NOAA Satellite Constellation

Abstract Between 2014 and 2018 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration conducted the NOAA Satellite Observing System Architecture (NSOSA) study to plan for the next generation of operational environmental satellites. The study generated some important questions that could be addressed by Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). This paper describes a series of OSSEs in which benefits to numerical weather prediction from existing observing systems are combined with enhancements from potential future capabilities. Assessments include the relative value of the quantity of different types of thermodynamic soundings for global numerical weather applications. We compare the relative impact of several sounding configuration scenarios for infrared (IR), microwave (MW), and radio occultation (RO) observing capabilities. The main results are: (1) increasing the revisit rate for satellite radiance soundings produces the largest benefits, but at a significant cost by requiring an increase of the number of polar orbiting satellites from two to twelve; (2) a large positive impact is found when the number of RO soundings/day is increased well beyond current values and other observations are held at current levels of performance; (3) RO can be used as a mitigation strategy for lower MW/IR sounding revisit rates, particularly in the tropics; and (4) smaller benefits result from increasing the horizontal resolution along the track of the satellites of MW/IR satellite radiances. Furthermore, disaggregating IR and MW instruments into six evenly distributed sun-synchronous orbits is slightly more beneficial than when the same instruments are combined and collocated on three separate orbits.

An Adaptive Channel Selection Method for Assimilating the Hyperspectral Infrared Radiances

Abstract Hyperspectral infrared (IR) satellites can provide high-resolution vertical profiles of the atmospheric state, which significantly contributes to the forecast skill of numerical weather prediction, especially for regions with sparse observations. One challenge in assimilating the hyperspectral radiances is how to effectively extract the observation information, due to the interchannel correlations and correlated observation errors. An adaptive channel selection method is proposed, which is implemented within the data assimilation scheme and selects the radiance observation with the maximum reduction of variance in observation space. Compared to the commonly used channel selection method based on the maximum entropy reduction (ER), the adaptive method can provide flow-dependent and time-varying channel selections. The performance of the adaptive selection method is evaluated by assimilating only the synthetic Fengyun-4A (FY-4A) GIIRS IR radiances in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE), with model resolutions from 7.5 to 1.5 km and then 300 m. For both clear-sky and all-sky conditions, the adaptive method generally produces smaller RMS errors of state variables than the ER-based method given similar amounts of assimilated radiances, especially with fine model resolutions. Moreover, the adaptive method has minimum RMS errors smaller than or approaching those with all channels assimilated. For the intensity of the tropical cyclone, the adaptive method also produces smaller errors of the minimum dry air mass and maximal wind speed at different levels, compared to the ER-based selection method. Significance Statement Assimilating satellite radiances has been essential for numerical weather prediction. Hyperspectral infrared satellites provide high-resolution vertical profiles for the atmospheric state and can further improve the numerical weather prediction. Due to limited computational resources, and correlated observations and associated errors, efficient and effective ways to assimilate the hyperspectral radiances are needed. An adaptive channel selection method that is incorporated with data assimilation is proposed. The adaptive channel selection can effectively extract the information from hyperspectral radiances under both clear- and all-sky conditions, with increased model resolutions from kilometers to subkilometers.

Optimising urban measurement networks for CO2 flux estimation: a high-resolution observing system simulation experiment using GRAMM/GRAL

Abstract. To design a monitoring network for estimating CO2 fluxes in an urban area, a high-resolution observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) is performed using the transport model Graz Mesoscale Model (GRAMMv19.1) coupled to the Graz Lagrangian Model (GRALv19.1). First, a high-resolution anthropogenic emission inventory which is considered as the truth serves as input to the model to simulate CO2 concentration in the urban atmosphere on 10 m horizontal resolution in a 12.3 km × 12.3 km domain centred in Heidelberg, Germany. By sampling the CO2 concentration at selected stations and feeding the measurements into a Bayesian inverse framework, CO2 fluxes on a neighbourhood scale are estimated. Different configurations of possible measurement networks are tested to assess the precision of posterior CO2 fluxes. We determine the trade-off between the quality and quantity of sensors by comparing the information content for different set-ups. Decisions on investing in a larger number or in more precise sensors can be based on this result. We further analyse optimal sensor locations for flux estimation using a Monte Carlo approach. We examine the benefit of additionally measuring carbon monoxide (CO). We find that including CO as tracer in the inversion enables the disaggregation of different emission sectors. Finally, we quantify the benefit of introducing a temporal correlation into the prior emissions. The results of this study have implications for an optimal measurement network design for a city like Heidelberg. The study showcases the general usefulness of the inverse framework developed using GRAMM/GRAL for planning and evaluating measurement networks in an urban area.

Targeted observation for the climatology temperature in the Kuroshio region based on the CNOP approach

To reduce the cost of ocean observations and improve prediction accuracy of the Kuroshio region temperature, this study investigates the related targeted observation by using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Results show that the scheme of vertical-integrated energy is more suitable for the identification of sensitive area in the related targeted observation. By conducting a set of observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs), we discovered that the sensitive areas identified by the CNOP exert substantial influence on temperature predictions within the target area. The dynamic diagnosis further indicated that the pressure gradient and Coriolis force in the momentum equations greatly contribute the development of the prediction biases. These findings implied that the implement of CNOP-based targeted observation represents a cost-effective strategy for enhancing temperature predictions in the Kuroshio region.

Using OSSEs to Evaluate GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

Abstract The Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite, expected to launch in the mid-2030s. As part of the follow-on to the GOES program, the NOAA/NASA GeoXO Sounder (GXS) instrument will join several international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. In preparation, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring that includes international partners. Using a global observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. Evaluation of the ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was performed globally and regionally. GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill relative to a Control. However, more sustained global improvements, on the order of 4 days, relied on international partnerships. Additionally, GXS showed the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors on the time scales necessary for evacuation warnings. The FSOI metric over CONUS showed that the GXS observations provided the largest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. The high-temporal-resolution atmospheric profile information over much of the Western Hemisphere from GXS provides an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts. Significance Statement NOAA and NASA are currently planning the GeoXO mission as a follow-on to the GOES program. As part of this process, NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has performed several experiments using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework to assess the potential impact of the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) on numerical weather prediction within the context of international partners launching similar instruments. As part of this assessment, it was found that assimilation of GXS data has the ability to improve both the model analyzed weather and forecasts of the weather, specifically over the domain that GXS observes. Global improvements relied more heavily on a solution consisting of multiple instruments to form a global ring.

Gradient calculation techniques for multi-point ionosphere/thermosphere measurements from GDC

The upcoming Geospace Dynamics Constellation (GDC) mission aims to investigate dynamic processes active in Earth’s upper atmosphere and their local, regional, and global characteristics. Achieving this goal will involve resolving and distinguishing spatial and temporal variability of ionospheric and thermospheric (IT) structures in a quantitative manner. This, in turn, calls for the development of sophisticated algorithms that are optimal in combining information from multiple in-situ platforms. This manuscript introduces an implementation of the least-squares gradient calculation approach previously developed by J. De Keyser with the focus of its application to the GDC mission. This approach robustly calculates spatial and temporal gradients of IT parameters from in-situ measurements from multiple spacecraft that form a flexible constellation. The previous work by De Keyser, originally developed for analysis of Cluster data, focused on 3-D Cartesian geometry, while the current work extends the approach to spherical geometry suitable for missions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The algorithm automatically provides error bars for the estimated gradients as well as the scales over which the gradients are expected to be constant. We evaluate the performance of the software on outputs of high-resolution global ionospheric/thermospheric simulations. It is shown that the software will be a powerful tool to explore GDC’s ability to answer science questions that require gradient calculations. The code can also be employed in support of Observing System Simulation Experiments to evaluate suitability of various constellation geometries and assess the impact of measurement sensitivities on addressing GDC’s science objectives.

The Impact of Assimilating Cirrus‐Effected Infrared Satellite Radiance From the FY‐4A AGRI on Water Vapor Analysis and Rainstorm Forecasting

AbstractIn this study, a method for assimilating FY4A advanced geostationary radiance imager (AGRI) cirrus‐effected radiances (CER) is investigated, and the impact of this method on water vapor analysis and rainstorm forecasting is examined through observing system simulation experiments and actual case experiments. The high proportion of inverted humidity profiles in the cirrus‐effected pixels is the main reason for the negative effect of assimilation in the mid‐to‐lower troposphere. To address this, relevant constraint conditions are incorporated into the cost function. The statistical results reveal that the addition of a CER assimilation improves the analysis increment of water vapor, with pattern correlation coefficients of 0.33, 0.35, and 0.20 at 200, 300, and 400 hPa, respectively, which are greater than those of a clear‐sky radiance assimilation (0.28, 0.33, and 0.17, respectively). Moreover, the inclusion of a CER assimilation greatly improves data utilization, and has a neutral to positive effect on precipitation forecasting.

Enhancing the Assimilation of SWOT Simulated Observations Using a Multi-Scale 4DVAR Method in Regional Ocean Modeling System

This paper presents an innovative approach to enhance the assimilation of high-resolution simulated observations, specifically targeting Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) Ka-band Radar Interferometer Sea Surface Height (SSH) products, within the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Responding to the demand for improved assimilation techniques, we developed a multi-scale Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) system, building upon validated fine-scale correction capabilities from prior studies. The multi-scale strategy was extended to the ROMS-4DVAR system, providing a comprehensive solution for assimilating high-resolution observations. Leveraging the Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework, we conducted a twin experiment comprising a nature run and a free run case. Subsequently, synthetic SWOT SSH measurements were decomposed, considering the model configuration resolution. These components, derived from dense SSH observations, were integrated into a two-step 4DVAR assimilation scheme. The first cycle targets large-scale features for model field correction, and the updated analysis serves as the background for the second assimilation step, addressing fine-scale observation components. Comparisons with the primitive ROMS-4DVAR using a single-scale scheme highlight the superiority of the multi-scale strategy in reducing gaps between the model and the SSH observations. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) is halved, and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) decreases from 2.237% to 0.93%. The two-step assimilation procedure ensures comprehensive multi-scale updates in the SSH field simulation, enhancing fine-scale features in the analysis fields. The quantification of three-dimensional-model dynamic fields further validates the efficiency and superiority of the multi-scale 4DVAR approach, offering a robust methodology for assimilating high-resolution observations within the ROMS.

Sensitive Areas’ Observation Simulation Experiments of Typhoon “Chaba” Based on Ensemble Transform Sensitivity Method

High-impact weather (HIW) events, such as typhoons, usually have sensitive regions where additional observations can be deployed and sensitive observations assimilated, which can improve forecasting accuracy. The ensemble transform sensitivity (ETS) method was employed to estimate the sensitive regions in the “Chaba” case in order to explore the impact of observation data in sensitive areas on typhoon forecasting during the rapid intensification phase. A set of observation system simulation experiments were conducted, with assimilations of sensitive observations (SEN), randomly selected observations (RAN), whole domain observations (ALL), and no assimilation (CTRL). The results show that (1) the sensitive areas of Typhoon “Chaba” are primarily located in the southwest of the typhoon center and are associated with the distribution of the wind field structure; (2) the typhoon intensity and tracks simulated by the SEN and RAN experiments are closer to the truth than the CTRL; (3) the SEN experiment, with only 3.6% of assimilated data observations, is comparable with the ALL experiment during the rapid intensification phase of the typhoon; (4) the uncertainty of the mesoscale model can be improved by capturing large-scale vertical wind shear and vorticity features from the GEFS data and then using the data assimilation method, which makes the vertical shear and vorticity field more reasonable.

CLOINet: ocean state reconstructions through remote-sensing, in-situ sparse observations and deep learning

Combining remote-sensing data with in-situ observations to achieve a comprehensive 3D reconstruction of the ocean state presents significant challenges for traditional interpolation techniques. To address this, we developed the CLuster Optimal Interpolation Neural Network (CLOINet), which combines the robust mathematical framework of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) scheme with a self-supervised clustering approach. CLOINet efficiently segments remote sensing images into clusters to reveal non-local correlations, thereby enhancing fine-scale oceanic reconstructions. We trained our network using outputs from an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM), which also facilitated various testing scenarios. Our Observing System Simulation Experiments aimed to reconstruct deep salinity fields using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) or Sea Surface Height (SSH), alongside sparse in-situ salinity observations. The results showcased a significant reduction in reconstruction error up to 40% and the ability to resolve scales 50% smaller compared to baseline OI techniques. Remarkably, even though CLOINet was trained exclusively on simulated data, it accurately reconstructed an unseen SST field using only glider temperature observations and satellite chlorophyll concentration data. This demonstrates how deep learning networks like CLOINet can potentially lead the integration of modeling and observational efforts in developing an ocean digital twin.

Extending the utility of space-borne snow water equivalent observations over vegetated areas with data assimilation

Abstract. Snow is a vital component of the earth system, yet no snow-focused satellite remote sensing platform currently exists. In this study, we investigate how synthetic observations of snow water equivalent (SWE) representative of a synthetic aperture radar remote sensing platform could improve spatiotemporal estimates of snowpack. We use a fraternal twin observing system simulation experiment, specifically investigating how much snow simulated using widely used models and forcing data could be improved by assimilating synthetic observations of SWE. We focus this study across a 24∘×37∘ domain in the western USA and Canada, simulating snow at 250 m resolution and hourly time steps in water year 2019. We perform two data assimilation experiments, including (1) a simulation excluding synthetic observations in forests where canopies obstruct remote sensing retrievals and (2) a simulation inferring snow distribution in forested grid cells using synthetic observations from nearby canopy-free grid cells. Results found that, relative to a nature run, or assumed true simulation of snow evolution, assimilating synthetic SWE observations improved average SWE biases at maximum snowpack timing in shrub, grass, crop, bare-ground, and wetland land cover types from 14 %, to within 1 %. However, forested grid cells contained a disproportionate amount of SWE volume. In forests, SWE mean absolute errors at the time of maximum snow volume were 111 mm and average SWE biases were on the order of 150 %. Here the data assimilation approach that estimated forest SWE using observations from the nearest canopy-free grid cells substantially improved these SWE biases (18 %) and the SWE mean absolute error (27 mm). Simulations employing data assimilation also improved estimates of the temporal evolution of both SWE and runoff, even in spring snowmelt periods when melting snow and high snow liquid water content prevented synthetic SWE retrievals. In fact, in the Upper Colorado River region, melt-season SWE biases were improved from 63 % to within 1 %, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of runoff improved from −2.59 to 0.22. These results demonstrate the value of data assimilation and a snow-focused globally relevant remote sensing platform for improving the characterization of SWE and associated water availability.

An Observing System Simulation Experiment Analysis of How Well Geostationary Satellite Trace‐Gas Observations Constrain NOx Emissions in the US

AbstractWe investigate the benefit of assimilating high spatial‐temporal resolution nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements from a geostationary (GEO) instrument such as Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) versus a low‐earth orbit (LEO) platform like TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the inverse modeling of nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. We generated synthetic TEMPO and TROPOMI NO2 measurements based on emissions from the COVID‐19 lockdown period. Starting with emissions levels prior to the lockdown, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry/Data Assimilation Research Testbed (WRF‐Chem/DART) to assimilate these pseudo‐observations in Observing System Simulation Experiments to adjust NOx emissions and quantify how well the assimilation of TEMPO versus TROPOMI measurements recovers the lockdown‐induced emissions changes. We find that NOx emission biases can be ameliorated using half as many simulation days when assimilating GEO observations, and the estimated NOx emissions in 23 out of 29 major urban regions in the US are more accurate. The root mean square error and coefficient of determination of posterior NOx emissions are reduced by 12.5%–41.5% and 1.5%–17.1%, respectively, across different regions. We conduct sensitivity experiments that use different data assimilation (DA) configurations to assimilate synthetic GEO observations. Results demonstrate that the temporal width of the DA window introduces −10% to −20% biases in the emissions inversion and constraining both NOx concentrations and emissions simultaneously yields the most accurate NOx emissions estimates. Our work serves as a valuable reference on how to appropriately assimilate GEO observations for constraining NOx emissions in future studies.

A Hybrid Gain Analog Offline EnKF for Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

AbstractFor Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA), a hybrid gain analog offline ensemble Kalman filter (HGAOEnKF) is proposed. It keeps the benefits of the analog offline ensemble Kalman filter (AOEnKF) that constructs analog ensembles from existing climate simulations with joint information of the proxies. The analog ensembles can provide more accurate prior ensemble mean and “flow‐dependent” error covariances than randomly sampled ensembles. HGAOEnKF further incorporates the benefits of static prior error covariances that better capture large‐scale error correlations and mitigate sampling errors than the sample prior error covariances, through a hybrid gain approach within an ensemble framework. Observing system simulation experiments are conducted for various data assimilation methods, using ensemble simulations from the Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble Project. Results show that using the static prior error covariances estimated from a sufficiently large sample set is beneficial for the traditional offline ensemble Kalman filter (OEnKF) and AOEnKF. HGAOEnKF method is superior to the OEnKF and AOEnKF with and without static prior error covariances, especially for the reconstruction of extreme events. The advantages of HGAOEnKF over OEnKF and AOEnKF with and without static prior error covariances are persistent with varying sample sizes and presence of model errors.

Including the Horizontal Observation Error Correlation in the Ensemble Kalman Filter: Idealized Experiments with NICAM-LETKF

Abstract Densely observed remote sensing data such as radars and satellites generally contain significant spatial error correlations. In data assimilation, the observation error covariance matrix is usually assumed to be diagonal, and the dense data are thinned or spatially averaged to compensate for neglecting the spatial observation error correlation. However, in theory, including the spatial observation error correlation in data assimilation can make better use of the dense data. This study performs perfect model observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) to assess the impact of assimilating horizontally dense and error-correlated observations. The condition number of the observation error covariance matrix, defined as the ratio of the largest to smallest eigenvalues, is important for the numerical stability of the LETKF computation. A large condition number makes it difficult to compute the ensemble transform matrix correctly. Reducing the condition number by reconditioning is found effective for stable computation. The results show that including the horizontal observation error correlation with reconditioning makes the analysis more accurate but requires 6 times more computations than the case with the diagonal observation error covariance matrix. Significance Statement It is important to effectively utilize observations in data assimilation for more accurate weather prediction. Spatially dense observations are known to have an error correlation that is ignored in the data assimilation. This study explores assimilating dense observations by explicitly including observation error correlations with an idealized experiment. The results shows that the analysis is improved by including the observation error correlations. Also, the condition number of the observation error covariance matrix is essential for stable computations.

Targeted Observations on Arctic Sea Ice Concentration for Improving Extended‐Range Prediction of Ural Blocking

AbstractThe predictability of certain extreme weather events can exceed the traditional 2 weeks by considering the boundary conditions. Targeted observations in sensitive areas (SA) on Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) can improve the extended‐range (4 pentads) forecast skills of long‐lasting and strong Ural blocking (UB). The SA are determined based on the SIC optimally growing boundary errors, obtained by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. The SA are mainly located in the Barents Sea, Greenland Sea, and Okhotsk Sea. The results of observing system simulation experiments for 8 UB cases indicate that the targeted observations can remarkably improve the prediction skills of UB in the fourth pentad. Targeted observations have a positive effect on 75% of 160 experiment members, reduce 35% forecast errors of the fourth pentad mean blocking index, and perform even better when the original forecast errors are greater. Further diagnosis shows that targeted observations contribute to more accurate SIC boundary conditions in the Barents Sea, Greenland Sea, and Okhotsk Sea and reduce temperature errors in the lower and middle troposphere. It further results in well‐described westerly winds in the Ural region and its adjacent regions, corresponding to the more skillful predictions of blocking circulations. The above results supply a theoretical base for the design of Arctic SIC observations and more skillful extended‐range predictions for mid‐latitude extreme weather.